2014 pourrait voir un évènement marquer le siècle

le 20 juin 2010
2014 pourrait voir un évènement marquer le siècle
Cambridge, Grande-Bretagne - Selon un professeur de l’université de Cambridge, un évènement déterminant pour le 21e siècle pourrait se produire en 2014.


Selon le professeur Nicholas Boyle, l’année 2014 déterminerait les années à venir ensuite, et cela marquerait soit le début d’une période de prospérité soit au contraire l’arrivée de guerres et de pauvreté à travers le monde. Le professeur de l’université de Cambridge explique en effet que des évènements majeurs se sont toujours passés pendant la moitié de la seconde décennie d’un nouveau siècle.

Ainsi en 1517, Martin Luther accroche ses idées aux portes de l’église de Wittenberg et lance le protestantisme. En 1618 débute la guerre de trente ans, et des conflits religieux font rage en Europe, jusqu'à l’avènement des Hanovre en 1715. Et en 1914 éclate la Première Guerre mondiale. Dans son livre 2014 – comment survivre à la prochaine crise mondiale ? le professeur explique que les États–Unis joueraient sans doute un rôle majeur dans les années à venir et guideraient le monde vers la voie d'un siècle de paix et de coopération ou d'un siècle de pauvreté et de violence.

Professor Nicholas Boyle of Cambridge University, who carried out the research, has pinpointed the global financial crisis as the trigger for the next 'Great Event'.

And he claims the U.S., with its waning economic influence but unrivalled military power, holds the key to determining the course and character of the next 90 years

Professor Boyle said: 'The character of a century becomes very apparent in that second decade, so why should ours be any different?

'Partly the timing has to do with the way we divide our understanding of human life and human history.

'If a century is going to have a character it is going to become apparent by the time it is approaching 20 years old, the same is true of human beings.

'Another factor is the sequence of generations. By about two decades in the generation that was really dominant in the last phase of the previous century has had its day.

'The future is beginning to be defined by their children who will only have lived in or have memories of the new century.'

The professor, who lectures in German and German history, said the recent economic collapse set the wheels in motion of a wider breakdown in international relations.

The U.S., he said, will become the key player in a series of make-or-break decisions and either condemn us to a century of violence and poverty, or usher in a new age of global co-operation.

But he cautioned that peace is only possible if the world realises that an age of individual nation states is over and an effective system of global governance is introduced.

Flashpoints of world politics such as climate change and the rise of China and India, as well as the global credit crisis, will need international co-operation to be resolved, he said.

'2007 started off colossal economic change which has still got a long way to go,' he said.

'Big economic changes lead to big political changes and we have not seen them yet.

'My thesis is that we have got another crisis to come, and you can already see that in the questions being raised over the debts of nations rather than private credit debts.

'One thing that has not changed is the colossus that is the American military which means the USA has to be a key player in any major politicial shift.

'We are going to see disparity in America's perception of its declining economic significance and continuing military and political absolute power.

'Everything, in the end, may depend on whether America can react more imaginatively to that decline than Britain was able to do in the years before 1914.

'It is a profoundly hopeful sign that we begin the 21st century with very many more international and intergovernmental organisations than we had at the start of the 20th.'

Professor Boyle: 'The only conceivably peaceful route to that goal is through a continuation of the pax Americana.

'But both the world's understanding of America, and America's understanding of itself, will have to change fundamentally for that goal to be achieved.'

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